The eminent English historian Arnold Toynbee maintained — based on his analysis of 26 civilizations throughout history — that the growth and continuance of civilizations is the direct result of their responding successfully to challenges, under the leadership of creative minorities. Once a civilization fails to respond successfully, it disintegrates. Unlike Spengler, however, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable.
Other theorists have attempted to apply scientific procedures to the study of history, hoping to formulate scientific "laws" of historical development.
Still others have pursued various religious or metaphysical interpretations of history, such as St. Augustine in his magnum opus The City of God (A.D. 426), in which he conceives history as the drama of the redemption of man.
Some historians, however, find no overall pattern at all, stressing the overriding role of the contingent, the unforeseen, and the accidental in history.
Most historians today take a diversified or eclectic approach to history, drawing upon elements of each school of thought in analyzing and explaining history. Rather than attempting to discern some type of "grand design," they limit themselves to exploring the numerous and varied causative factors and influences on the course of history.
Major Factor Overlooked
Most modern historians, however, have overlooked a major factor in the rise and fall of nations and empires. In their reconstruction and interpretation of history, the vast majority have rejected the notion that the course of history has been directly influenced and guided by providential intervention.
Yet, when the evidence is examined, the conclusion that history in its broad outlines is providentially governed seems inescapably apparent. Many of the actual makers of history — great statesmen and military leaders at the helms of nations and armies — have come to that very conclusion.
Winston Churchill, for example, clearly perceived God's hand in history. In an address before the U.S. Congress on December 26, 1941, the British prime minister asserted that "he must indeed have a blind soul who cannot see that some great purpose and design is being worked out here below. . ." On another occasion in Britain some 10 months later, the war-time leader further expounded his belief in divine intervention, observing: "I sometimes have a feeling of interference. . . I have a feeling sometimes that some Guiding Hand has interfered."
Benjamin Franklin held a similar conviction. Speaking at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia in June 1787, Franklin asserted: "The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without his notice [a reference to Matthew 10:29], is it probable that an empire can rise without his aid?"
Changing the Course of History
Historical evidence to support such a belief is abundant. Strange, inexplicable, and miraculous circumstances at certain crucial junctures in the stories of nations and empires seem to point unmistakably to the guiding hand of God. Some examples:
• In his quest for world domination, King Philip II of Spain sent his "invincible" 124-ship Armada against England in July 1588. After about a week of fighting against the English, who were led by Sir Francis Drake, the Armada crossed the English Channel and anchored at Calais. On the night of July 28, Drake sent blazing fire ships adrift among the anchored Spanish fleet, causing the Spaniards to cut cable and put to sea in confusion.
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