Matthew 24:14

**SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC REPORTS, #57, #138, #210.
*SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE MARKETING RESEARCH REPORTS, #632, #669, #713, RESPECTIVELY.

TOTAL FOOD RESERVES IN U.S. — ONE YEAR ON PAPER

When you read in your daily newspapers about the unprecedented famines to come, it'll be TOO LATE to do anything about it!

FAMINE CAN STRIKE — ANYTIME . . . BUT

"Total famine is impossible," cry the scoffers. Why? Simply because "total famine has never yet occurred in the United States." The past is the key to the present, supposedly.

People seem to forget that the causes of famine have never reached the proportions they are today: saturation of soils with pesticides, air pollutants, chemical fertilizers, and insecticides — not to mention man-caused weather upsets and nutritionally poor soils resulting from overwork. And no one seems to see prophesied famine as a result of a sinning, godless society!

One reason people scoff at the thought of famine is the recent publicity of the "Green Revolution" and the "Worldwide Food Glut." The good crop years of 1967-68-69 have made many think that famines are finally conquered by modern technology.

This is a total misunderstanding of the facts. Here are a few of the fallacies of the so-called "food glut" and how the harvests of ANY year could totally fail:

• WEATHER — by far the most important factor is totally out of man's control. But this factor is the sole reason for the good crops of 1967-8-9 as these typical quotes show:

"The increase in food production was largely due to good weather" (Daily Telegraph, Sept. 13, 1968).

"Avoidance of disaster over the next few years will depend almost entirely on weather" (New York Times, Oct. 14, 1966).

"A major reason for the glut is bumper crops resulting from good weather" (Time, Sept. 12, 1969, p. 90).

Authors William and Paul Paddock of Famine, 1975, say "Luckily these last two years, there has been exceptionally fine weather throughout most of the agricultural world. As a result, we may expect a couple of years of extra grace. . . The big increase is due to the excellent weather God has given us."

• GRAIN is what the "food glut" refers to — not protein foods so necessary to a balanced diet.

• THE "GLUT" does not refer to glutted people, but glutted surpluses. The food is not getting to the hungry mouths!

• THE "GLUT" refers to a loss of profit margin for the farmer: Lower prices due to greater supply, less demand.

• TREND OF TWO DECADES is a decline in per capita food production. Bumper crops of 1967-8-9 are a deception when viewed in larger perspective. From 1950 to 1955, food was up 20%; from 1955 to 1960, it was up 15%; from 1960 to 1965, it was up 11%. This shows a long-range trend of considerable decline in growth.

ANY year could be the year FAMINE strikes!

WILL OUR FOOD REALLY LAST ONE YEAR?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts one short year of emergency food supplies! But, will food really last that long? Here are some of the factors that we in overstuffed America tend to ignore:

• The per capita portions are based on starvation rations. The "millers' surplus" of 99 days is based on a ration of 2,000 calories per day — Americans today eat 60% more than that!

The "storage bin surplus" is only 4 bushels of wheat per person, about 170 pounds. Over an 8-month period, this is only 12 ounces per day, or 800 calories! This is approximately the amount we eat today, but in a famine condition, there will be no other foods to balance our diet!

The "cattle surplus" is slightly larger: one-half a cow per person. At best, this is 300 pounds of meat, or almost 1,000 calories per day for a year.

Will you be willing to live on 2,000 calories a day for 99 days, then 1,800 calories for eight months, and then less than 1,000 for four last months? Most people won't! They'll get fighting mad!

• Between 10 and 25 percent of all grains in storage are lost to spoilage each year (Too Many, Georg Borgstrom, p. 122-231. In an abnormal famine situation, spoilage will tend toward the higher figure.

• Mass hoarding will cause large amounts of grain to disappear immediately. Cattle will be quickly "rustled" unless armies of livestock guards shoot to kill. Owners, officials, the rich and influential will immediately hoard at least 10% of all food supplies.

• Food riots of the poor and malnourished masses will be commonplace, often resulting in destruction or spoilage of the very food they fight over.

• Other nations will be in a similar famine condition, with fewer reserves. They will demand food!

• Who will be able to afford to buy the food? Savings will quickly be wiped out — jobless, desperate mobs will search mercilessly for your food.

• Transportation, processing, and distribution will be difficult, if not impossible. Roving gangs of hungry men will raid trains and storehouses.

• In a famine-ridden country, insect plagues and ravaging diseases will be much more common, ruining much food. New situations will cause unforeseen kinds of food spoilage.

• These considerations leave the average American with LESS THAN HALF of the anticipated food surplus. Are you still willing to trust in silos and "surplus"?