V. Population vs. Food Production
The true problem is the population explosion. Because of social, economic and political situations prevailing in some hunger-plagued nations, there is at present no way for the masses to increase food production enough to keep pace with population growth. No matter how fast food grows, it increases arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.). But population increases geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, etc.).
Percentages of population growth are rising (from about 1.8% per year in 1950 to about 2.1% per year today), while food increases are declining.
One, two, or even three good years do not erase the trend of two decades. There have always been good and bad years, but long-range trends are the important statistics to watch.
Right after World War II the widespread use of fertilizers and pesticides began. Reserve acres of land were brought under cultivation. This brought many years of excellent increases, but those years had to come to an end. The land can be "fertilized" and "pesticided" just so much, and the number of reserve acres is limited.
That turning point came in the middle 1960's. From 1950 to 1955 food was up 20%, from 1955 to 1960, it was up 15%, from 1960 to 1965, it was up 11 %. Each recent five-year percentage has dropped about one-fourth off the growth rate.
Meanwhile population rises 11% each five years! This makes world per-capita food production less each year on a long-term basis.
World yields per acre only grew an average of one percent per year between 1961 and 1965. Meanwhile, population grew a full two percent per year. Many lands are nearly "worn out," and could begin failing the farmer any year.
Reserve arable land is now at a premium. The only major "escape valve" left open to man is to plant the pasture lands, and this requires mass slaughtering of livestock. Depleted livestock numbers mean much fewer calories and less protein for future years.
VI. Surpluses Won't Last Long
The vaunted surpluses resulting from three consecutive bumper crops are not as much as one may think. A recent government study revealed that the United States has only 40 days of processed food available in case of famine: 9 days' supply on housewives' shelves; 15 days' supply with retailers; and 16 days' supply with wholesalers and factories.
In addition, the raw grain surplus and the entire national supply of livestock would provide food for about one year! Knowing the food riots that historically result from a famine situation, this supply could disappear in much less than one year.
And this is the United States — one of the best fed countries in the world! How much harder would a famine year strike a country with little or no food reserve — which includes most of the world!
But articles about today's "food glut" express confidence this won't happen: "The world supply of wheat has grown so large that even a serious drought in one or two countries would not wipe out the global surplus" (Time, September 12, 1969, p. 90).
That sounds reassuring. But it is a hollow reassurance when one analyzes it. The world is safe if there is drought in only one or two wheat-producing countries for one year. But how about three or four of the big producers? How about for two years? Or seven?
The world would survive a worldwide drought for only a matter of a very few months. It would take years, maybe decades, of excellent weather and incredible production in every crop to work up to a safe surplus.
Telling It Like It Is
Now, we can see the warnings of world-famous scientists in better perspective:
Dr. Binay Sen, Director-General of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, warned, "If the rate of food production cannot be significantly increased, we must be prepared for the four horsemen of the apocalypse." Dr. Sen added, "The next thirty-five years . . . will be a most critical period in man's history. Either we take the fullest measures to raise productivity and to stabilize population growth, or we will face disaster of an unprecedented magnitude."
Dr. Sen is intimately familiar with the problem and deals with it every day. Another authority on the threat posed by a burgeoning population is Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich of Stanford University's Department of Biological Sciences. He predicts bluntly: "Sometime between 1970 and 1985 the United States and the rest of the world will undergo vast famines — hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.
"That is, they will starve to death unless plague, thermonuclear war, or some other agent kills them first. Many will starve to death in spite of any crash programs we might embark on now. And we in the U.S. are not embarking on any crash program. Nor is any other nation. These are the harsh realities we face."
Dr. Raymond Ewell, vice-president of the State University of New York warned, "The food-population problem seems likely to reach such enormous proportions, even by 1975, that it will dwarf and overshadow all the problems and anxieties that now occupy our attention, such as the threat of nuclear war, communism, the space race . . ."
Professor John McMillan, president of the Australian Freedom from Hunger campaign, said that unless humankind "roused itself" the most terrible famine known to man could engulf the world within a short ten years!
"The relentless ticking of the overpopulation time bomb grows ominously louder with each passing day," wrote Irving S. Bengelsdorf of the Los Angeles Times.
Thomas M. Ware, head of the Freedom from Hunger Foundation in the United States: "The catastrophe is not something that may happen; on the contrary, it is a mathematical certainty that it will happen."
Dr. Earl L. Butz, Dean of Agriculture at Purdue University: "The world is on a collision course. When the massive force of an exploding world population meets the much more stable trend line of world food production, something must give. Unless we give 'increased attention to the softening of the impending collision, many parts of the world within a decade will be skirting a disaster of such proportions as to threaten the peace and stability of the Western world."
Asserted Dr. Robert H. White-Stevens, nutritionist, biochemist, Assistant to the Director of Research and Development, Agricultural Division, American Cyanamid Corporation, "The last third of the 20th century will prove to be of unparalleled gravity for civilization as it is now organized. The perils of the Dark Ages, the strife of the Hundred Years' War and the desolation of all the marauding armies of history combined will not match the devastation and loss of human life that will occur between now and the year 2000."
Dr. 'White-Stevens had more to say. "Famine can be expected to emerge as the paramount force in the world socio-politico economy by 1975 and continue to a point now totally unpredictable where human society could fragment into total chaos on a global basis."
Humanity has a rendezvous with FAMINE.
Escapism
The world as a whole seeks escape by ignoring the problem, hiding its eyes from reality, sweeping the whole crisis under a mental rug!
But what about you?
Warned Dr. Borgstrom, "The prevailing escapism is of such dimensions that it is bordering on insanity. We enjoy a leisurely existence in a world of illusion created by our words and fanciful concepts. When somebody reminds us of reality, we talk ourselves out of it — as do the insane." He continues, "If we continue as hitherto, we are heading for inevitable disaster" (Too Many, pp. 454-455).
Is it really sound-mindedness for nations to spend billions launching rockets toward the moon — but to spend trifling amounts on the most crucial, most urgent problems here on earth? Is it sane to waste billions on smoking, excess alcohol, excess drugs, excess cosmetics, excess leisure, and excess of nearly everything else . . . and ignore impending DISASTER?
Have you been hypnotized by glorious "space adventures"? Have you been lulled asleep by the siren song that "everything is all right"?
Or are you ready to face up to reality?
Also see the companion article for a special 1969 interview with Dr. James Bonner of the California Institute of Technology — Most scientists agree that massive famines are inevitable.